The use of the stochastic logistic equation is proposed to estimate the number of probable peaks in the coronavirus incidence.Īlready in this century, several global epidemics have broken out (bovine spongiform encephalopathy, avian influenza, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), etc.). The latest coronavirus epidemic (CODIV-19) struck everyone with its scale and affected literally all countries forced to take emergency measures to prevent the infection spread of (closure of state borders, quarantine, self-isolation, temporary work break of many enterprises and institutions, transition to distance work and training).
#Excel solver function magnitude of initial values serial#
The variability spectra of the coefficients have characteristic peaks at periods of several days, which corresponds to the observed serial intervals. Variations, for example, of the growth rate can reach 60%. To describe it, it is necessary to take into account the dependence of the model coefficients on time or on the total number of cases. At the same time, the dependence of the number of the infected people per day on time has a very uneven character and can be described very roughly by the logistic curve.
It is shown that the dependence of the number of the infected people on time is well described on average by the logistic curve (within the framework of a simple or generalized logistic equation) with a determination coefficient exceeding 0.8.
The model coefficients are calculated: the growth rate and the expected number of infected people, as well as the exponent indexes in the generalized logistic equation. The generalized logistic equation is used to interpret the COVID-19 epidemic data in several countries: Austria, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Italy, Turkey and South Korea.
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